Could World War III begin in South Asia?

Sometimes I wonder if we're looking in the wrong place for the next big war. While many people think of a possible third world war as tensions between the US and Russia or China and the West, I personally feel the spark could be ignited in South Asia, that is, between India, Pakistan, and China. Sounds dramatic? Sure, and I naturally hope it never comes to that. But when you look at the history and current developments in this region, this concern doesn't seem so unreasonable.

A long history full of conflict

India and Pakistan have been bitter rivals since their founding in 1947. The partition of British-ruled India into two independent states, a predominantly Hindu India and a Muslim Pakistan, was bloody and left Kashmir as a disputed region that both countries continue to fight over to this day. Shortly after independence, the first war over Kashmir broke out. Further wars followed, for example in 1965 and 1971, the latter leading to the secession of Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan). None of this brought lasting peace; at most, there was a ceasefire along the so-called Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir.

In the 1970s, the conflict took on a new, frightening dimension: nuclear weapons. India detonated its first atomic bomb in 1974, initiating a nuclear arms race on the subcontinent; Pakistan followed two decades later. Ever since Pakistan followed suit at the end of the 1990s, two nuclear powers have stood eye to eye. Immediately after the first nuclear tests in 1998, there was no more open war (apart from the brief conflict in Kargil in 1999), but South Asia did not become safer as a result. On the contrary: both sides resorted to militarily gambling below the nuclear threshold. In 2019, for example, following a terrorist attack, India carried out air strikes on Pakistani territory for the first time in decades, and Pakistan actually shot down an Indian fighter jet and took the pilot prisoner. This shows how quickly dangerous incidents can occur despite nuclear deterrence.

Powder keg South Asia: The current situation

But India and Pakistan are not the only players in this drama. China is also involved. India also has a sensitive past with China. In 1962, the two countries fought a brief war in the Himalayas, which India lost resoundingly. Long stretches of the border between India and China are still disputed today. Incidents occur again and again in these high mountain regions. In 2020, a brutal brawl in the Galwan Valley left soldiers on both sides dead for the first time in decades: 20 on the Indian side and four on the Chinese side. This non-firearms clash was a painful reminder of how explosive the relationship between the Asian giants still is.

Things become particularly explosive when you consider the triangle: China and Pakistan are close allies. Beijing stands firmly on Islamabad's side diplomatically and speaks of a veritable "all-weather friendship" with Pakistan. The Chinese government supports Pakistan militarily and technologically, from nuclear aid in earlier decades to modern weapons systems today. For example, Pakistan has even used Chinese fighter jets against India in recent clashes. For India, this means a two-front war in the worst case scenario: if war breaks out with Pakistan, China could seize the opportunity, or vice versa. Not a pleasant scenario considering that all three countries possess nuclear weapons.

Given this constellation, it's hardly surprising that some experts consider South Asia the world's most dangerous flashpoint. Indeed, nowhere else are there three direct neighbors, all of whom are nuclear-armed and have recently experienced violent clashes along their borders. Any conflict in this region carries the risk of spiraling out of control. And once missiles start flying over the Himalayas, who can guarantee that other major powers won't be drawn into it?

Ultimately, of course, this is just one scenario among many. Perhaps the optimists will be right, and the rivals in South Asia will find ways to manage their disputes peacefully. Nevertheless, I have a queasy feeling when I look at India, Pakistan, and China. The mix of historical enmities, territorial disputes, nationalist rhetoric, and nuclear arms race is like gasoline just waiting for a spark to ignite. A Third World War is hopefully only fiction. But if it does break out, I unfortunately think it's quite possible that it will start there rather than anywhere else.